Gay Marriage Ban
Witness the W redirecting attention away from unpopular topics to one he can't lose.
I have heard and seen lots of chat about this topic, and I'm convinced it's a red herring, intended to shore up W's sagging ratings and firm up his conservative base ahead of the '06 mid-terms. This does nothing but make Bush look good to his neo-conservative base; there is no chance that a country that could not adopt the Equal Rights Amendment during the most liberal period in American history can adopt a Gay Marriage Ban during the most conservative.
First, you have to understand the rules of amendments. Most people don't. Let me give you a history refresher.
Before a Gay Marriage Ban can take effect constitutionally, the following must happen:
- An appropriately worded amendment proposal must be introduced. Not by the President, but by a member of congress. This is the only likely step that is going to happen.
- Identical resolutions must pass both houses of congress with 2/3 majority. This is unlikely to happen.
- Identical resolutions must pass 3/4 off all state's assemblies
- All this must happen within a time frame (usually seven years) outlined in the original proposal
The last new amendment proposal to try this gauntlet was the Equal Rights Amendment. Introduced in 1971, it successfully passed both houses of congress in identical form. Then it went to the states. As of 1979, when the proposal expired, 35 out of 38 required states had ratified it. Of the remaining 15, more than three had ratified an equal rights amendment; however since the state's versions differed from the version passed by the US Congress, those ratifications did not count toward the 38. The only way that this could have worked is if the congress took up the modified versions and re-voted (and reconciled) them, and then the original 35 ratified states would have to re-vote on the new proposal, effectively starting all over again.
This is highly unlikely to happen with a Gay Marriage Ban, although probably more likely to happen than the 2/3 vote needed in Congress.
So here's what's really going on:
- "Sanctity of Marriage"
- yadda yadda yadda
- Bush does his part for the Conservatives
- Conservatives either clinch or lose the '06 mid-terms
- Everyone goes home happy